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When one sourcing country falters, are your alternatives ready?

A food retailer sources a key category largely from a handful of countries. Disease, climate, labour unrest or a sudden import ban in one of them can empty shelves within weeks. The procurement team wants to see it coming, and know where else to buy.

How we frame it
Spotting areaSupply chain resilience for priority product categories
Research intentAnticipate sourcing disruptions and keep qualified alternatives ready
Scope descriptionTop categories × sourcing countries and regions: production, trade flows, prices, regulation
Essential conceptsConcentration, climate, disease, labour, price, logistics and regulatory risk · alternative supplier · alert threshold
Recognise this?

Why it is hard today

  • Most of a category comes from one or two countries.
  • Risk signals are scattered across trade press, prices, weather and regulation.
  • When disruption hits, the search for alternatives starts from zero.
The process

Five steps, the same every time.

Every use case runs through the same process. What changes is the configuration: your spotting area, sources, criteria and outputs.

01 · Frame

Priority categories, risk dimensions, alert thresholds and owners are agreed per category.

02 · Collect

Trade flows, prices, news, regulation and your supplier lists are connected to countries, regions and suppliers.

03 · Analyse

Exposure per country and region is scored, deep-shock scenarios are explored and alternatives are mapped.

04 · Validate

Every signal carries its source and date. Buyers judge relevance; alternatives are qualified on scale, quality and certification.

05 · Deliver

A category Pulse, a risk dashboard and alerts with a proposed action reach the right buyer.

In practice: avocados

Take avocados, sourced year-round from a handful of countries in Latin America and Africa. In season, one origin supplies more than half of the volume and scores high on several risk dimensions, from water stress to price: that is where prepared alternatives are needed first. When growers in a key producing region face new water restrictions, it appears as an alert, with its source and date.

Anonymised and simplified example.

Risk per origin country, avocados
OriginShareConcentr.PriceClimateDiseaseLabourRegulation
Origin A53%
Origin B16%
Origin C13%
Origin Dn/a
Low Medium HighIllustrative scores
The output

Your customised workflow.

Configured on your question and kept running after the first result.

Spotting area
  • Supply chain resilience
  • One spotting area per priority category
Data
  • Trade & price data
  • News & regulation
  • Supplier lists
Analysis
  • Signal detection
  • Scenario analysis
  • Ecosystem mapping
Expert check
  • Buyer review
  • Source & confidence
Outputs
  • Category Pulse
  • Risk dashboard
  • Alerts with action
  • Alternatives shortlist

Built from our standard building blocks. See how they fit together →

What you get
  • A global baseline per category
  • An exposure view per country and region
  • A qualified shortlist of alternatives
  • Scenarios for deep shocks
  • Alerts that reach the right buyer, with a proposed action
How we start
01 · Discover

We define the spotting area, research intent, scope and essential concepts together.

02 · Build

We configure your workflow from proven building blocks and test it on your real question.

03 · Run

The workflow keeps running and improving; you decide what to extend, continue or stop.

Does this sound familiar?

Bring your own version of this question. We'll show how we would tackle it.

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