Steering Change Without Controlling It: Reflections on Transitions in Turbulent Times
“Transition” has become the keyword for almost every system-level challenge we face today.
We talk about the food transition, the energy transition, the transition to a circular or generative economy.
But what do we really mean when we say a system is in transition?
And what does it take to support those shifts, without falling into the trap of control?
Understanding the forces that shape systemic change
Transitions are deep, structural shifts in how systems function: how we produce, govern, relate, and care.
They don’t happen all at once. They unfold when several forces collide:
- Global developments, like climate change, conflict, or digitalisation, create pressure to adapt.
- Existing systems, such as industrial food, fossil-based energy, or centralised finance begin to crack or stall.
- New alternatives like regenerative farming, citizen innovation, or platform cooperatives gain traction at the margins.
It’s in the friction and interaction between these forces that transitions begin to unfold. But transitions are rarely linear. They’re not engineered or implemented like a project plan. They’re messy, slow, non-linear and often invisible until much later.
Steering without controlling
In a world that feels increasingly uncertain, the instinct to manage, control, and simplify is strong.
But real transitions don’t follow predictable scripts. They demand a different postur, one of entrepreneurship over management: the courage to act without certainty, to build in complexity, and to initiate without control.
To work with transitions is to:
- Recognize early signals of change.
- Acknowledge tensions and competing logics.
- Investigate what’s emerging beneath the surface.
- Nurture the coalitions, narratives, and conditions that allow change to take root.
It’s not about fixing complexity, it’s about creating space for emergence and co-evolution. This is where ecosystem thinking becomes essential. No single actor, no matter how powerful, can drive a systemic shift alone. Transitions require distributed leadership, trust-based collaboration, and the ability to work across boundaries.
Transitions are often triggered by crisis
Transitions don’t always begin with a shared vision. More often, they are triggered by crisis, disruption, or pressure to adapt. Whether it’s a climate emergency, a geopolitical shock, economic turmoil, or a public health crisis, these ruptures expose system fragilities and force reconfiguration.
Today, we see examples everywhere:
- Governments racing to secure energy independence.
- Industries reshaping supply chains under urgency.
- Innovation agendas shifting toward resilience and sovereignty.
This urgency is sometimes described as a war economy mindset—a rapid mobilisation of resources to respond to perceived threat.
The key is not to judge these transitions as right or wrong—but to ask:
What values are shaping the response? And what direction are we moving in?
Because every crisis also creates an opening. An opportunity to re-evaluate, reimagine, and redirect. Not toward business-as-usual in new clothes, but toward systems that are regenerative, equitable, and resilient by design.
What Role for Data, KPIs, and AI?
In times of transformation, we often reach for what feels concrete: data, dashboards, models, forecasts.
These tools have a role to play. Used wisely, they:
- Surface patterns we might otherwise miss.
- Help track learning and progress over time.
- Support alignment across stakeholders.
But used without reflection, they can do harm. They can:
- Oversimplify what is inherently complex.
- Prioritize what is measurable over what matters.
- Create a false sense of control in uncertain systems.
We must be careful not to mistake measurement for meaning, or prediction for participation.
Technology should support transitions, not replace the human judgment, dialogue, and trust they require.
Amid this complexity, some organisations offer a glimpse of what transition stewardship looks like in practice.
FoodValley NL: An ecosystem builder supporting the food transition by connecting startups, corporates, researchers, and policy makers across themes like protein shift and circular agrifood.
ChristchurchNZ: A regional agency in New Zealand redefining economic development as a platform for inclusive innovation in cleantech, health, and the future of work.
Ellen MacArthur Foundation: A global force in circular economy thinking, providing frameworks and tools that help businesses and governments redesign for long-term regeneration.
These organisations don’t pretend to control transitions. They create the space, language, and alignment needed to let them unfold.
Closing Reflections
Transitions are uncertain, imperfect, and full of tension. They are not about certainty, but about direction.
Not about control, but about connection.
Our role is not to engineer the future, but to remain open and engaged. To listen carefully. To learn collectively. To nurture what wants to emerge.
Further Reading & Watching
For those who want to explore more deeply:
Articles & Essays
- Rethinking the Transition Narrative – Dark Matter Labs
- From Ego to Eco – Otto Scharmer, Presencing Institute
Videos
